THURSDAY(APRIL 1st) POSSIBLE CHASE

It's looking like a possible chase day on Thursday, but a fly in the ointment may keep t-storms from forming at all.

Everything looks pretty good for supercells on Thursday. A low will be moving into the southern plains which will draw up moisture from the gulf and also will be increasing the shear over the area. Forecast hodographs look very good for supercell development, but the cap at 700mb may very well negate these positive factors.

The models the last few days have forecasted 700mb temps from about 7-9 degrees Celsius. A positive note is that the models have cooled the layer down a little bit in the last few runs. That's good news!

I'll definitely update as the possible event gets closer. Stay tuned!

VERDICT ON TODAY: IT'S A NO GO

After looking at a few things, I have decided to stay at home today. Northerly surface winds in the area that I was planning on going has all but ruined what I think may have been a decent day. I think the better chance is going to be further east near DFW where the winds have a southerly component, and the Td is a little better. I don't think I'll regret it later for not going. We'll see...

POSSIBLE CHASE TODAY (24th)

The SPC has a slight risk for a large chunk of North Texas on Wednesday. I pretty much agree with most of their discussion, and I agree that the main threat will be severe criteria hail, but if conditions improve, a tornado or two can't be ruled out.

Positives--

*Decent Td for this time of year in the mid 50's
*Very good 0-6 km shear from 30-60 kts
*Cold air in the upper levels will help with lapse rates, thus improving large hail potential.

Negatives--

*Cloud cover may be a big factor for tomorrow. Models suggest cloud cover may be very persistent, thus preventing much instability from developing.
*Cold front may be further south than anticipated, thus bringing north surface winds to the area which may bring a negative effect to the supercell potential.
*Due to the front and cloud cover, daytime temps may have a difficult time reaching to the mid 60's in the threat area.

If the cold front can slow down and allow temps to climb into the upper 60's and lower 70's along with decreasing clouds, tomorrow may turn out to be a pretty good day. I'll update again mid morning to see what the verdict is.

RIGHT NOW, I'M LIKING THE AREA NEAR SEYMOUR, TX

FIRST DAY OF SPRING

I think I'll go back to bed now and dream of high contrast tornadoes somewhere in Western Oklahoma!



EDIT: After looking at the long range GFS, March 31st and April 1st look like the possibility of some chasing fun. We'll see how things progress as the end of March gets closer.

FIRST CHASE OF THE YEAR= 1 TORNADO

WOW!!! What a day. I almost decided not to go today because of the meager setup. Also, I almost went SE on 287 towards Childress, but I'm glad I stuck with my original target of Canadian, TX. I stuck around in Canadian twiddling my thumbs for about an hour, and thought real hard about heading back home. I looked at Grlevel3 one last time and noticed the cells to the SE of me looking better and better. I thought to myself, I might as well go after them since I'm out anyway. I hauled East on 33 to try to get to Roll and go south. As I got about 2 miles south of Roll, I got into some hail that ranged from peas to quarters. I called in the report of quarters and kept heading south. I met my buddies Brandon Green and Frank Blanscet and chatted for a few minutes. I was actually heading home when I saw the base to the SE and the funnel report on radar. I popped over another hill, and about soiled all lover myself! LOL! I couldn't believe what I was seeing. I really had to stop for a minute and tell myself that this was really happening. Anyway, I got video of it from just south of Cheyenne which was about 10-12 miles away from the tornado. Contrast couldn't have been better! I just wish I was a little closer, but I'll take it!

Oh, about halfway through the trip I noticed I forgot my still camera at home! I said to myself that something big would happen since my still camera got left behind. I wasn't quite expecting it to be this big. This may be the best tornado I've ever gotten on video.

HERE IS SOME WX ON FILM FOR YOUR ENJOYMENT: HAIL AND TORNADO VIDEO

FIRST CHASE OF THE 2010 SEASON (3/8/10)

Well, it appears that I will be chasing on Monday. Right now, my initial target area is Canadian, TX. I'm really not looking for much in the way of severe weather, but some marginally severe hail along with a possible weak, short lived tornado is possible near the surface low. Really, I'm just going out to get back in the groove and check out the equipment for the meat and potatoes part of the severe wx season.

The low that is progged to initiate the thunderstorms will pretty much be right over the Panhandle on Monday afternoon. 500mb temps will be very cold which will help contribute to steep lapse rates. CAPE on the other hand will be very marginal at best. CAPE values may approach 800 j/kg, but cool surface temps in the upper 50's and cloud cover may keep it from reaching above 500j/kg. Td will be in the upper 40's and low 50's in the region which really isn't that bad for this time of year.

Maybe I can at least get into some severe hail and gusty winds, but right now I'd settle for a few Cg's and towering Cu.

INITIAL TARGET AREA: CANADIAN, TX