It's looking like a possible chase day on Thursday, but a fly in the ointment may keep t-storms from forming at all.
Everything looks pretty good for supercells on Thursday. A low will be moving into the southern plains which will draw up moisture from the gulf and also will be increasing the shear over the area. Forecast hodographs look very good for supercell development, but the cap at 700mb may very well negate these positive factors.
The models the last few days have forecasted 700mb temps from about 7-9 degrees Celsius. A positive note is that the models have cooled the layer down a little bit in the last few runs. That's good news!
I'll definitely update as the possible event gets closer. Stay tuned!
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