The SPC has a slight risk for a large chunk of North Texas on Wednesday. I pretty much agree with most of their discussion, and I agree that the main threat will be severe criteria hail, but if conditions improve, a tornado or two can't be ruled out.
Positives--
*Decent Td for this time of year in the mid 50's
*Very good 0-6 km shear from 30-60 kts
*Cold air in the upper levels will help with lapse rates, thus improving large hail potential.
Negatives--
*Cloud cover may be a big factor for tomorrow. Models suggest cloud cover may be very persistent, thus preventing much instability from developing.
*Cold front may be further south than anticipated, thus bringing north surface winds to the area which may bring a negative effect to the supercell potential.
*Due to the front and cloud cover, daytime temps may have a difficult time reaching to the mid 60's in the threat area.
If the cold front can slow down and allow temps to climb into the upper 60's and lower 70's along with decreasing clouds, tomorrow may turn out to be a pretty good day. I'll update again mid morning to see what the verdict is.
RIGHT NOW, I'M LIKING THE AREA NEAR SEYMOUR, TX
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